How Out-Party Cues Cause Citizens to Shift Their Policy Preferences
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54195/plc.21810Keywords:
Party cues , Opinion change , Polarisation, Survey-experimentAbstract
Do out-party cues polarise? More precisely, do citizens turn away from policy viewpoints when they are confronted with information indicating that these viewpoints are supported by a political party they dislike? The answer to this question is contested in the literature. This paper contributes to the ongoing debate by examining the mechanisms that lead people to respond negatively to out-party cues in the absence of in-party cues. Using data from a survey experiment in Belgium, the study suggests that two distinct mechanisms are at play. The effect is partly indirect: being exposed to out-party cues makes citizens (sometimes incorrectly) update their assumptions of the policy position of their own party, and this explains their subsequent opinion change. There is also a direct effect, however: citizens dissociate themselves from the out-party and, consequently, move to an opposing policy position. Additionally, the paper examines the significance of the degree of dislike. The results show that not much aversion is needed for partisan electorates to polarise.
Downloads
References
Aaroe, L. (2012). When citizens go against elite directions: Partisan cues and contrast effects on citizens’ attitudes. Party Politics, 18(2), 215-233. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354068810380093
Bakker, B. N., Hopmann, D. N., & Persson, M. (2015). Personality traits and party identification over time. European Journal of Political Research, 54(2), 197-215. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.12070
Bankert, A. (2020). Chapter 7: The origins and effects of negative partisanship. https://www.elgaronline.com/
edcollchap/edcoll/9781788111980/9781788111980.00012.xml
Bankert, A. (2021). Negative and Positive Partisanship in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Elections. Political Behavior, 43(4), 1467-1485. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-020-09599-1
Bartels, L. M. (2002). Beyond the Running Tally: Partisan Bias in Political Perceptions. Political Behavior, 24(2), 117-150. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1021226224601
Bolsen, T., Druckman, J. N., & Cook, F. L. (2014). The Influence of Partisan Motivated Reasoning on Public Opinion. Political Behavior, 36(2), 235-262. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-013-9238-0
Boudreau, C., & MacKenzie, S. A. (2014). Informing the Electorate? How Party Cues and Policy Information Affect Public Opinion about Initiatives. American Journal of Political Science, 58(1), 48-62. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12054
Bullock, J. G. (2011). Elite Influence on Public Opinion in an Informed Electorate. American Political Science Review, 105(3), 496-515. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055411000165
Cohen, G. L. (2003). Party Over Policy: The Dominating Impact of Group Influence on Political Beliefs. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 85(5), 808-822. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.85.5.808
Deschouwer, K. (2009). The Politics of Belgium: Governing a Divided Society. Palgrave MacMillan.
Dolezal, M., Ennser-Jedenastik, L., Müller, W. C., & Winkler, A. K. (2014). How parties compete for votes: A test of saliency theory. European Journal of Political Research, 53(1), 57-76. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.12017
Druckman, J. N., Peterson, E., & Slothuus, R. (2013). How Elite Partisan Polarisation Affects Public Opinion Formation. American Political Science Review, 107(1), 57-79. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055412000500
Feddersen, A., & Adams, J. F. (2022). Public opinion backlash in response to party messages: A case for party press releases. Electoral Studies, 80, 102532. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2022.102532
Festinger, L. (1957). A theory of cognitive dissonance. Row Peterson.
Fowler, A., & Howell, W. G. (2023). Updating amidst Disagreement: New Experimental Evidence on Partisan Cues. Public Opinion Quarterly, 87(1), 24-43. https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfac053
Goren, P., Federico, C. M., & Kittilson, M. C. (2009). Source Cues, Partisan Identities, and Political Value Expression. American Journal of Political Science, 53(4), 805-820. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2009.00402.x
Green-Pedersen, C. (2007). The Growing Importance of Issue Competition: The Changing Nature of Party Competition in Western Europe. Political Studies, 55(3), 607-628. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9248.2007.00686.x
Harteveld, E., Kokkonen, A., & Dahlberg, S. (2017). Adapting to party lines: The effect of party affiliation on attitudes to immigration. West European Politics, 40(6), 1177-1197. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402382.2017.1328889
Hicks, R., & Tingley, D. (2011). Causal Mediation Analysis. The Stata Journal, 11(4), 605-619. https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867X1201100407
Iyengar, S., Lelkes, Y., Levendusky, M., Malhotra, N., & Westwood, S. J. (2019). The Origins and Consequences of Affective Polarisation in the United States. Annual Review of Political Science, 22(1), 129-146. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-051117-073034
Kam, C. D. (2005). Who Toes the Party Line? Cues, Values, and Individual Differences. Political Behavior, 27(2), 163-182. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-005-1764-y
Lalonde, R. N. (2002). Testing the social identity-intergroup differentiation hypothesis: ‘We’re not American eh!’ British Journal of Social Psychology, 41(4), 611-630. https://doi.org/10.1348/014466602321149902
Lau, R. R., & Redlawsk, D. P. (2001). Advantages and Disadvantages of Cognitive Heuristics in Political Decision Making. American Journal of Political Science, 45(4), 951-971.
Lenz, G. S. (2009). Learning and Opinion Change, Not Priming: Reconsidering the Priming Hypothesis. American Journal of Political Science, 53(4), 821-837. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2009.00403.x
Lupia, A., McCubbins, M. D., & Popkin, S. L. (Red.). (2000). Elements of Reason: Cognition, Choice, and the Bounds of Rationality. CUP.
Merkley, E., & Stecula, D. A. (2018). Party Elites or Manufactured Doubt? The Informational Context of Climate Change Polarisation. Science Communication, 40(2), 258-274. https://doi.org/10.1177/1075547018760334
Merkley, E., & Stecula, D. A. (2021). Party cues in the news: Democratic elites, Republican backlash, and the dynamics of climate scepticism. British Journal of Political Science, 51(4), 1439-1456.
Nicholson, S. P. (2012). Polarizing Cues. American Journal of Political Science, 56(1), 52-66. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2011.00541.x
Satherley, N., Yogeeswaran, K., Osborne, D., & Sibley, C. G. (2018). If They Say “Yes,” We Say “No”: Partisan Cues Increase Polarisation Over National Symbols. Psychological Science, 29(12), 1996-2009. https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797618805420
Seeberg, H. B. (2022). First avoidance, then engagement: Political parties’ issue competition in the electoral cycle. Party Politics, 28(2), 284-293. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354068820970353
Siczek, T. (2016). Citizens’ knowledge of parties’ left-right and EU integration conflicts: The role of cognition, affect, and political parties [Thesis, European University Institute]. https://doi.org/10.2870/684900
Slothuus, R. (2016). Assessing the Influence of Political Parties on Public Opinion: The Challenge from Pretreatment Effects. Political Communication, 33(2), 302-327. https://doi.org/10.1080/10584609.2015.1052892
Slothuus, R., & Bisgaard, M. (2021). Party over Pocketbook? How Party Cues Influence Opinion When Citizens Have a Stake in Policy. American Political Science Review, 115(3), 1090-1096. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055421000332
Tajfel, H. (1982). Social Psychology of Intergroup Relations. Annual Review of Psychology, 33(1), 1-39. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.ps.33.020182.000245
van Erkel, P. F. A., & Turkenburg, E. (2022). Delving into the divide: How ideological differences fuel out-party hostility in a multi-party context. European Political Science Review, 14(3), 386-402. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1755773922000121
Wagner, M., & Meyer, T. M. (2014). Which Issues do Parties Emphasise? Salience Strategies and Party Organisation in Multiparty Systems. West European Politics, 37(5), 1019-1045. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402382.2014.911483
Wagner, U., & Ward, P. L. (1993). Variation of out-group presence and evaluation of the in-group. British Journal of Social Psychology, 32(3), 241-251. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2044-8309.1993.tb00998.x
Walder, M., & Strijbis, O. (2022). Negative Party Identification and the Use of Party Cues in the Direct Democratic Context. Politics and Governance, 10(4), 325-335. https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.v10i4.5702
Zaller, J. (1992). The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion (Map Political Knowledge). Cambridge University Press.
Downloads
Published
Data Availability Statement
Data is available upon request.
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Julie Sevenans, Patrick F.A. van Erkel (Author)
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
How to Cite
Funding data
-
Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek
Grant numbers 1294422N -
Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek
Grant numbers G012517N
