From Opportunity to Motive. Examining the Determinants and Motives of Turnout and Abstention in the Flemish Local Elections of 2024
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54195/plc.23899Keywords:
Local elections, Flanders, Voter turnout, Abstention, Voting determinants, Voting motivesAbstract
The abolishment of compulsory voting for the 2024 local elections in Flanders offers a unique setting to study the determinants and motives of electoral participation. The sharp drop in turnout raised questions about who chooses (not) to vote when it is no longer mandatory, and why. Using representative panel data from the Belgian Local Elections Studies 2024 (N=1,459), we analyse the social and political profile of voters and non-voters. This shows that different factors matter. While a favourable socioeconomic status, personal involvement in local politics, being older or being ideologically left increases the odds of turning out the most, being younger, having foreign roots, having no party identification, or having an identification with a radical party decreases them the most. Motives for (not) voting also vary. While normative considerations like civic duty are dominant among voters, non-voters seem primarily propelled by situational motives (like being otherwise engaged) or feelings of powerlessness and disengagement. Finally, we study which groups of citizens chose to turn out or abstain for which reasons. Our findings reveal a combination of profound patterns of political socialisation, political sophistication, the place-bound expression of political life, as well as a personal political logic. Overall, our findings underline the enduring impact of social and political features on local electoral participation. They also highlight how rationales and profiles interrelate. Attempts to increase turnout must thus respond to a variety of mechanisms.
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Data Availability Statement
The data were collected through The Social Study, an advanced data collection infrastructure co-owned by all Belgian universities. After a period of 12 months after collection, the data will be published in the SODHA archive, becoming available for use by other researchers upon completion of a data use agreement.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Tony Valcke, Tom Verhelst, Kristof Steyvers (Author)
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